Phosphate, 28 October 2026: a duty came off in London while the Indian bid stayed away

India did not buy. Pakistan said it will not buy again this year. Nepal ran a tender and disclosed nothing. And the UK removed 6pc of duty with a date attached.

Only one of those four is a reason to be constructive, and it is the only one that can be diarised.

As of 28 October 2026, DAP held at $870-907/t fob China and $894-904/t cfr India, both unchanged. MAP into Brazil rolled at $830-850/t cfr. Nola was the exception: DAP rose $2.50/st to $790-795/st fob and MAP $1/st to $818.50-830/st, on November barge trade rather than any change in the import story.

Finished prices, 28 October 2026

Market	27 Oct	28 Oct	Move
DAP fob China	$870-907/t	$870-907/t	unchanged
DAP cfr India	$894-904/t	$894-904/t	unchanged
MAP cfr Brazil	$830-850/t	$830-850/t	unchanged
DAP fob Morocco	$850-910/t	$850-910/t	unchanged
DAP cfr Turkey	$914-944/t	$884-929/t	▼ −$22.50
DAP cfr Southeast Asia	$900-950/t	$900-950/t	unchanged
DAP fob Nola	$780-800/st	$790-795/st	▲ +$2.50
SSP 20% P2O5 fob China	$235-255/t	$240-255/t	▲ +$2.50
TSP fob China	$623-640/t	$620-635/t	▼ −$4

The Indian gap, in numbers

Indian buyers are indicating $880s/t cfr and below. Sellers are talking high $890s down to low $880s, and none of it could be verified as traded. Chinese fob is assessed at $870-907/t. Chinese freight to India is $25-37/t on a 45-55,000t parcel.

Do the subtraction. At $870/t fob with $25/t freight, Chinese material lands at $895/t cfr India — at the top of the Indian assessment range and above what buyers will pay. At the high end of the fob range, $907/t plus any freight is outside the market entirely.

So the standoff is not sentiment. It is that the Chinese fob range and the Indian bid range only overlap if you buy near the bottom of the fob range and ship on the cheapest tonnage available. That is a narrow trade, and it explains why no tender has been issued: issuing one would force both sides to discover that the overlap is thin.

RCF’s long-term supply enquiry closing 14 November is the next scheduled test, and it is a different animal — year-long supply, formula-priced, not a spot print.

Pakistan leaves the bid

More DAP vessels are discharging at Karachi, and with steady domestic production the country’s stocks are rising. Two vessels remain in the lineup, after which importers say they will stay out of the market for the rest of the year.

That matters beyond Pakistan. Together with the absent Indian tender, it means South Asia has no bid in the fourth quarter. The DAP that would have gone there has to find another home, and the alternatives are Brazil, Southeast Asia or a European buyer whose duty just fell.

Turkish prices fell $22.50/t on the week, the largest drop in any market. Turkey is short-sea from Russia, North Africa and the Middle East simultaneously, so when supply is looking for a home the weakest seller sets the price there first. It is the market’s pressure gauge.

London removed 6pc, dated 26 November

The UK is removing tariffs on fertilizers including DAP and MAP from 26 November 2026 until 31 December 2027. Standard UK import duty on the affected products is 6-6.5pc. Urea, amsul, NPKs, NP and PK are included; AN and CAN are not. Russian and Belarusian origin stays dutiable.

On a 5,000t DAP parcel at $880/t cfr, 6-6.5pc is $264,000-286,000. On 10,000t it is more than half a million dollars. The fob price does not change by a cent, and the landed cost comparison against every other destination changes by the full amount — from a specific date.

The NFU has called the measure minimal, and against the absolute level of fertilizer prices they are right. Against a single 5,000t buying decision it is not minimal at all. For a seller, this is the most actionable item in the report: a UK buyer with a Q1 requirement now has a reason to fix tonnage for arrival after 26 November, and a reason to prefer a cargo that clears inside the window.

It also means UK buyers are the marginal bid for exactly the tonnage Pakistan and India are not taking. That is worth a phone call this week, not next month.

China’s floor is being tested at $250

Chinese SSP was offered at around $250/t fob with no deals concluded, because the level is too high for Brazilian buyers. SSP 20% P2O5 fob China was assessed at $240-255/t, up $2.50 at the low end, and TSP drifted down $4/t to $620-635/t.

Read the pair honestly. SSP at $250 fob with no takers means the Chinese floor is above what the cheapest destination will pay — a seller-side standoff in a product with the lowest barrier to entry in the phosphate chain. TSP easing while SSP firms is the opposite of a single directional story: buyers are trading down the phosphate ladder, and the bottom rung is where the resistance is.

Chinese MAP 11-52 slipped $9/t to $790-815/t fob, which is the one Chinese number that moved meaningfully this week, and Chinese domestic DAP ex-works ticked up $1/t to $674-704/t. Domestic firm, export soft.

Cost relief that does not reach everyone

Sulphur into North Africa settled at $845-900/t for Q4 against $990-1,010/t in Q3 — a fall of $127.50/t. Tampa sulphur dropped to $615/t from $705/t. Hubei 28% phosphate rock fell ¥80/t to ¥870-900/t delivered. Imported ammonia-and-sulphur input cost for DAP eased in China ($480.3/t), India ($483.7/t) and North Africa ($495.4/t).

Then the exception: phosphoric acid cfr western Europe was assessed at $1,800-1,980/t P2O5 for Q3 2026, against $1,420-1,945/t in Q2 — up $207.50/t at the top of the range. Chinese industrial-grade acid eased $25/t to $1,285-1,305/t.

That split explains the European price structure. Benelux DAP sits at $954-965/t and Romanian bagged DAP at $980-1,020/t, both far above Chinese fob, because a European granulator buying acid is facing a higher input than a Chinese producer with integrated acid capacity and cheaper domestic rock. Anyone quoting “costs are falling, DAP must follow” is quoting the rock-and-sulphur half of the chain and ignoring the acid half.

What to watch

3 November brings two tenders on the same day: Incofe in Central America for 25,000t granular and 5,000-13,500t prilled urea alongside phosphate products, and a 12,000t amsul parcel — and NCIC in Egypt closes a DAP, TSP and phosphoric acid tender on 29 October for November loading.

Then 14 November, RCF’s long-term enquiry. If India is going to re-enter the market this quarter, that is where it shows up.

And watch whether UK buyers actually book between now and 26 November. A tariff removal that nobody buys against is a press release. A tariff removal that pulls 20,000t forward is a market.

Prices as assessed on 28 October 2026. Market information from our own trading desks and trade sources; figures are indicative and move daily. Terms are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.