Phosphate, 27 October 2026: the cost side moved and the price has not
DAP did not move this week. Nothing about that is reassuring if you are selling, and nothing about it is finished if you are buying.
As of 27 October 2026, DAP held at $870-907/t fob China and $894-904/t cfr India, both unchanged for a second week. MAP into Brazil held at $830-850/t cfr. On the same day, the inputs that make those granules moved hard in the other direction.
Sulphur into North Africa settled at $845-900/t for Q4, down from $990-1,010/t in Q3 — a fall of $127/t. Tampa sulphur dropped to $615/t from $705/t. Hubei 28% phosphate rock fell ¥80/t to ¥870-900/t delivered. Ammonia-sulphur input cost for DAP fell in every region: China $480.3/t, India $483.7/t, North Africa $495.4/t.
Two input costs falling in the same fortnight is not the normal pattern. Usually one offsets the other.
Finished prices, 27 October 2026
| Market | 22 Oct | 27 Oct | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAP fob China | $870-907/t | $870-907/t | unchanged |
| DAP cfr India | $894-904/t | $894-904/t | unchanged |
| DAP fob Saudi Arabia | $858-877/t | $859-864/t | ▼ −$6 |
| DAP fob Jordan | $861-880/t | $860-865/t | ▼ −$8 |
| DAP fob Morocco | $850-925/t | $850-910/t | ▼ −$7.50 |
| DAP fob Egypt | $875-881/t | $870-875/t | ▼ −$5.50 |
| DAP cfr Turkey | $914-944/t | $884-929/t | ▼ −$22.50 |
| DAP cfr Southeast Asia | $900-950/t | $900-950/t | unchanged |
| MAP cfr Brazil 11-52 | $830-850/t | $830-850/t | unchanged |
| MAP fob China 11-52 | $793-830/t | $790-815/t | ▼ −$9 |
| TSP fob China | $623-640/t | $620-635/t | ▼ −$4 |
| DAP fob Russia Baltic/Black Sea | $809-863/t | $824-863/t | ▲ +$7.50 |
Why the chain moves in this order
Phosphate does not reprice on a screen. Rock and sulphur are bought on quarterly settlements. Acid is produced against those settlements. Granules are sold forward against acid. A lower Q4 sulphur number reaches a DAP offer when the next acid batch is priced — typically November for December shipment, sometimes later if a producer is carrying inventory.
That is the mechanism behind the table above. The cost side has already repriced. The granule side has started to, unevenly, and China has not started at all.
Where it has started tells you something. Turkey lost $22.50/t, more than anyone, because it is short-sea from Russia, North Africa and the Middle East at the same time. Three origins can reach it cheaply, so the weakest seller clears the market and the price drops fast. Brazil and Southeast Asia, both long-haul, barely moved. Russia gained $7.50/t — a reminder that cost is not the only variable, and that supply from one origin can tighten while the global cost curve falls.
The demand side has three holes in it
Bangladesh is out of the spot market. China signed a government-to-government contract in October for up to 456,000t of DAP between October 2026 and January 2027 — at least 280,000t committed, plus 160,000t optional at 10% tolerance, priced on formula. That is a large buyer removed from spot for the rest of the year.
India has not published its subsidy position. Import demand is thin not because India has enough DAP but because importers cannot compute a margin without the subsidy number. Delays in the domestic season may extend the import window slightly, which helps availability and does nothing for price.
Pakistan is substituting away. Buyers are turning to TSP combined with urea rather than DAP, and price ideas have softened to $900/t cfr and below. That is a demand shift, not a price negotiation, and it is harder to reverse.
The China spread worth understanding
Chinese DAP ex-works sits at $674-704/t against an export fob of $870-907/t. The gap is roughly $170-200/t and it is not a quality difference or a data error. Domestic sales and export sales are two separate markets in a quota year, cleared against different constraints. Reading one as a proxy for the other is how buyers misjudge Chinese offers.
What this means for a buyer
The honest answer is that the next six weeks favour patience, with two conditions.
If your requirement lands in Q1, waiting is defensible. Sulphur settlement is done at the lower number, rock is softer, and producers who have been holding DAP offers at $870 will be pricing December acid against a cheaper curve. The first genuine test of that will be the next round of Chinese export offers, and the Jordanian and Indonesian tender results that are currently circulating — unconfirmed, but pointing lower.
If you need December shipment, the calculus is different. Availability is the constraint on Chinese material, not price, and a $10 concession does not help if the tonnage is not there.
The thing not to do is buy DAP on a “costs are falling so price must fall” thesis without checking where your origin sits on the freight curve. Turkey proves the point in one week: same cost curve, $22.50/t of movement, because three suppliers could reach it.
Prices as assessed on 27 October 2026. Market information from our own trading desks and trade sources; figures are indicative and move daily. Terms are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.
Questions this raises
What is the DAP price in October 2026?
On 27 October 2026 DAP was $870-907/t fob China, $894-904/t cfr India, $859-864/t fob Saudi Arabia, $860-865/t fob Jordan and $850-910/t fob Morocco. MAP into Brazil was $830-850/t cfr. Chinese domestic DAP ex-works was $674-704/t.
Why is DAP not falling when input costs are?
Because the phosphate chain transmits cost with a lag of one to two months, not overnight. Rock and sulphur are bought on quarterly contracts, acid is produced against those contracts, and granules are sold forward. A fall in the Q4 sulphur settlement shows up in DAP offers when the next acid batch is priced, which is generally November for December shipment.
Is sulphur or phosphate rock the bigger cost driver for DAP?
Together they are most of the variable cost, and which one dominates depends on the route and the region. Sulphur into North Africa fell to $845-900/t for Q4 from $990-1,010/t in Q3, while Hubei 28% rock fell ¥80/t to ¥870-900/t delivered. When both fall at once the effect compounds — that is what happened this month, and it is unusual.
Why did DAP fall hardest in Turkey?
Turkey lost $22.50/t on the week, more than any other market, because it is a short-sea destination served by several origins at once — Russia, North Africa and the Middle East all reach it cheaply. Where freight is short, buyers can switch origin quickly, so the weakest seller sets the price. Longer-haul markets such as Brazil and Southeast Asia adjust more slowly.
What is the China-Bangladesh DAP deal?
A government-to-government contract signed in October 2026 for up to 456,000t of DAP from October 2026 to January 2027. At least 280,000t is committed with an option for a further 160,000t at 10% tolerance, priced on a formula. It removes Bangladesh from the spot market for the rest of the year and is one reason Asian DAP sentiment is weak.
Products referenced
Date check: the market information in this article was current as of 2026-10-27. Prices move; treat anything here as context rather than as a live quote. Ask the export desk for the position today.
Sources and basis
- Trade sources and tender results, read to 27 October 2026
- Producer and exporter price indications reported in the trade press
- Chinese domestic ex-works and raw material assessments, 27 October 2026
Market commentary on this site is written in our own words from trade sources we are licensed to read. No paid report, price table or chart is reproduced here, and no figure is presented as a live assessment.
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