Phosphate week 43, 2026: DAP is being sold, MAP is not, and the US has swapped them over

Week 43 was the week the phosphate market stopped pretending. China sold DAP into Asia at a lower netback, MAP sat unpriced because nobody offered it, and in the US the two products swapped places.

Market	Level	Move
DAP fob China	$870-885/t	high end −$22
DAP cfr India	$883-900/t	−$7.50
MAP cfr Brazil 11-52	$830-850/t	no offers
DAP fob Nola	$795-800/st	firm
MAP fob Nola	$818-830/st	▲

DAP is for sale. MAP is not.

Chinese DAP fob fell $22/t at the high end to $870-885/t on weaker southeast Asian netbacks: that market went from $900-950/t cfr to $900-920/t cfr, and $950 is gone. India fell $7.50/t to $883-900/t cfr.

Chinese MAP 11-52 was unchanged at $790-815/t fob, not because it is strong: no fresh offers, bids or deals, as producers hold limited CIQ-approved material. A market with no offers does not print a lower price. It prints no price.

The US just inverted the spread

US Gulf barges were assessed at $795-800/st for DAP and $818-830/st for MAP. MAP is now $23-30/st above DAP, the wrong way round. The cause is domestic: MAP is the grade US blenders book for fall and spring, and November Tampa ammonia settled at $640/t, up $95 after five declines.

One phosphate price this week averages two markets that stopped agreeing.

The contract China cannot ship

Beijing signed a government-to-government deal to supply Bangladesh with up to 456,000t of DAP from October to January 2027 — 280,000t committed, an option on 160,000t, formula priced. There is still no CIQ-approved DAP cargo in China, and DAP capacity in Hubei, Guizhou and Yunnan runs at 45.21pc.

When the first cargo clears, DAP does not fall by 456,000t. It falls by however much the market was wrong about the delay — a much smaller number.

India is waiting on a subsidy, not a price

Indian DAP was $883-900/t cfr, nothing traded. Importers cannot compute a retail price until the rabi subsidy is published. Port stocks fell 66,000t to 621,000t in a week — about two weeks of consumption. RCF’s long-term enquiry closes 14 November.

Costs fall, except the line that matters

Sulphur into North Africa settled at $845-900/t for Q4 against $990-1,010/t in Q3; Tampa sulphur fell to $615/t. But November Tampa ammonia rose to $640/t, and Indian Q4 phosphoric acid held at $1,700/t P2O5. Imported ammonia-and-sulphur cost for DAP eased to $469.05/t in China, and the chain passes cost through with a lag of one to two months: Q4 sulphur reaches December shipment, not October.

Next

6-8 November, Wuhan, is where Chinese producers signal domestic sentiment; 14 November, RCF, is where India re-enters. The first CIQ-approved Chinese cargo is the only event that moves this market quickly. Turkey, down $22.50/t because three origins reach it cheaply, is the pressure gauge to watch.

Prices as assessed on 30 October 2026. Market information from our own trading desks; figures are indicative and move daily. Terms are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the contract.